A warm front has moved through the region overnight from South to North, bringing in the warm and humid airmass for the rest of the afternoon & evening. Temperatures will reach into the upper 80′s to low 90′s for most of the interior locations and the coastal regions will be in the mid 80′s. Dewpoints will also increase into the upper 60′s to low 70′s across the state, giving that warm and muggy feeling outside. As with anytime during the Summer, the threat of showers and thunderstorms will be around for the remainder of the day with the unstable atmosphere.
The heat and humidity will pick on Wednesday, with many locations touching the low 90 degree mark along with dewpoints rising into the low 70′s across the state. Higher temperatures will be focused further inland as coastal regions will stick in the mid 80′s for the most part. With the heat and humidity and plenty of sunshine heating up the atmosphere, we will instability growing over the region during the afternoon and evening hours. With those ingredients over the region, we should be talking about the potential of severe weather. However, the key ingredient, the “trigger” a.k.a cold front will be pushing through the region more towards late evening rather than at peak instability during afternoon and early evening hours. Look at the CAPE levels during the afternoon than look at the CAPE levels during the evening below. As we lose the sun, we start to lose the instability in the atmosphere, allowing more of strong thunderstorms and isolated severe cells as the cold front moves through.
I’ve been mentioning as of lately that all major models have been hinting at another cool shot across the Northeast. I’ve seen some comments rejoicing in the news of cooler temps through the end of July and into the beginning of August, while others want the heat to stick around for the rest of Summer. Let me know what you prefer, a hot or cool Summer?
This weekend won’t go down as one of the best weekends we’ve had but it won’t be the worst. Overall, conditions will remain ‘cool’ with temperatures ranging in the upper 70′s – low 80′s for the interior locations and slightly cooler along the coastal regions ranging in the mid 70′s. Sunday will feature similar conditions as today for most, however along coastal sections you may experience some rain showers thanks to a weak disturbance moving along the coast. The NAM is the most aggressive out of all the models with scattered showers along the coast, while the rest keep the moisture further East and out to sea. As you can see the image below, the weak low pressure system will remain miles out to sea but increased chances of rain showers will remain for the immediate coastal region. Regardless, cloudy conditions will remain dominant to end the weekend.