As we head into Tuesday, a powerful storm will just be getting started to form off in the Atlantic. I’ve been tracking this system for sometime now and it looks like New Jersey will be spared from a nasty snow storm. Looking at all the latest model guidance and current pattern, I don’t see a major shift that could take this system further West from the current modeled projection. The only concern I do have is for the inverted trough to form and a few more inches gets thrown back over Central New Jersey. However, determining those factors is really hard to pinpoint at this range and can only be narrowed down during ‘nowcasting’ and see where or if the trough forms.
We are three days into Spring and we are still talking about Winter storm threats. I don’t know about you but I am getting fairly tired of writing about potential snow threats. I am a huge snow lover but I am very ready for the Spring and Summer seasons! Enough about my complaints, we do have another Winter storm threat that will be approaching our area Tuesday night into Wednesday. If you have been following my Twitter posts & Facebook posts, you are well aware that I’ve remained quiet about this system due to the complicated setup and not having all the players on the field sampled properly as they were not over the CONUS. Models don’t handle well on fine details when disturbances are not over land and variations on track (East or West) placement are happening with every new model run. I figured, why overload everyone with a new track and possible outcome when it is going to change 20x before the event actually happens, lets wait until we have solid data to make a solid first forecast.
It looks like Old Man Winter doesn’t want to give up just yet and is trying its best to bring another snow shot to the New Jersey area starting Sunday night – Monday. If you have been following my posts on Facebook, you already know that I have not been high on this storm over the past several days. I am going to break down a few models and explain why I don’t see this as a big storm for the area and show you my preliminary thoughts on what to expect Sunday night - Monday.
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